Does the premise hold?

The four quadrants

A and D are the two corners the prediction is about. A cell below 30 trades cannot support a verdict either way, and is marked thin rather than quietly counted.

Right about direction — and still lost

The share of trades that called direction correctly and still lost money, because the move never cleared the premium paid. This is the failure a retail buyer cannot see on a price chart and cannot fix by getting better at picking direction. If hello earns its existence anywhere, it is here.

What would kill this

• A and D indistinguishable — gamma regime and VRP carry no information for a buyer, and hello's central premise is wrong.
• D at or above A — the relationship is inverted and everything built on gamma is backwards.
• Every quadrant negative — no buyable edge exists in this dataset and hello should stop recommending entries entirely.

All three are real outcomes and get reported as such. The partition was fixed in advance by the thesis and no threshold was tuned to improve the result — a search over many partitions until one looked good would find something on any five-year series and mean nothing.